The 2026 tax filing season is officially underway, and it is shaping up to be a historic one. This is the first year taxpayers are seeing the effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which introduced several new deductions for tips, overtime, auto loan interest, and senior citizens.
Because the IRS withholding tables weren’t updated in time for the 2025 calendar year, millions of Americans were over-withheld—setting the stage for a significant “refund surge.” Here are the three critical IRS data points we are tracking this season.
1. Average Refund Size: A Double-Digit Jump
The most striking figure so far is the size of the individual check. As of February 20, 2026, the average refund stands at $3,804—a 10.2% increase over the same period last year ($3,453).
While the retroactive nature of the OBBBA is driving this immediate spike, economists expect the long-term benefit to come from the bill’s permanent reduction in marginal tax rates, which encourages labor participation.
2. Total Amount Refunded: Running Hot
The IRS is moving money into taxpayers’ pockets faster than last year. By the third week of reporting, the agency had already distributed over $109.3 billion in total refunds, outpacing the $102.2 billion sent out by the same time in 2025.
| Year (as of mid-Feb) | Total Refunded | Change |
| 2025 | $102.25 Billion | — |
| 2026 | $109.33 Billion | +6.9% |
3. Share of Filers Receiving a Refund
A larger percentage of Americans are finding themselves in the “refund” column this year. While roughly 63% of filers received a refund in 2024 and 2025, that share has climbed to 68.6% in early 2026.
As of February 20, the IRS has processed 28.7 million refunds. Although the total number of processed returns is slightly lower than last year, the high percentage of returns resulting in a refund confirms that the OBBBA’s new credits are reaching a wider range of taxpayers.
Why This Matters
Typically, refund sizes grow in late February as the IRS begins releasing returns that include the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC). Given the high baseline we are seeing now, 2026 could result in record-breaking payouts for American households.