Washington State Considers Flawed Tobacco Policies

Washington State lawmakers are weighing two problematic proposals: a novel carbon tax on cigarettes and a statewide flavor ban on tobacco products. While flavor bans have precedents in Massachusetts and California, the results have been overwhelmingly negative, prompting even the Biden administration to reconsider a national approach.

The experiences of Massachusetts and California offer stark warnings. Both states saw significant drops in tobacco tax revenue and a surge in illegal market activity, with little discernible impact on smoking rates. Massachusetts’ flavor ban in 2020 led to over $100 million in lost excise tax revenue annually, with much of the legal sales simply shifting to neighboring states. Illicit product seizures and smuggling estimates also skyrocketed.

California’s 2022 flavor ban yielded similar results, with state cigarette sales and excise taxes plummeting by over $230 million. Unlike Massachusetts, a substantial portion of California’s lost legal sales migrated to illicit and international markets. A study of discarded cigarette packs in major Californian cities revealed only a marginal decrease in menthol consumption and a significant jump in the share of foreign and illegal cigarettes.

Washington State’s own analysis predicts a flavor ban would cause over $100 million in annual revenue losses. The proposed carbon tax on cigarettes, estimated to generate a mere $1 million per year at $0.03 per pack, would barely offset this decline. This tax, set to increase significantly over time, rests on a questionable justification. While secondhand smoke is harmful and cigarette smoking releases some carbon dioxide, classifying cigarettes as a major statewide pollutant is a tenuous argument. The global emissions from all cigarettes are dwarfed by the emissions of a single city like Seattle.

These ill-conceived policies appear to be a desperate attempt to address Washington State’s $15 billion budget deficit. Taxpayers deserve stable and well-reasoned fiscal reforms, not piecemeal measures that create new problems while failing to provide long-term solutions. These narrow and haphazard approaches merely postpone the need for genuine fiscal responsibility.