Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed several tax hikes, the most significant of which is raising the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%. Harris’s campaign describes this increase as “a fiscally responsible way to benefit working people.” However, much of the burden from this tax hike would ultimately fall on workers in the form of reduced wages. According to an analysis by the Alliance for Competitive Taxation (ACT), the proposed tax increase could lower the average U.S. worker’s wages by as much as $597 annually, with some states seeing drops exceeding $700 per worker.
For decades, economists have recognized that corporate taxes partially impact workers, as they lead to reduced corporate investments. This, in turn, lowers productivity, decreases wages, and results in fewer job opportunities. While estimates vary, most studies agree that workers bear a significant portion of the corporate tax burden, with some research suggesting that labor shoulders half or more of the costs. Additionally, shareholders, including many pension account holders from low-income households, are also affected. Some studies also show that consumers may face higher prices as corporations pass on the increased tax costs.
In a recent and comprehensive study, economists Li Liu and Rosanne Altshuler analyzed corporate tax rate variations across U.S. industries over time. They found that approximately 60% of the corporate tax burden falls on workers through reduced wages. On the lower end of estimates, agencies like the Joint Committee on Taxation and the Congressional Budget Office suggest that about 25% of the corporate tax burden is borne by labor.
ACT used these estimates to determine how a corporate tax increase to 28% would affect workers’ wages, assuming no change in employment levels. Using the Treasury Department’s estimate of $1.3 trillion in additional revenue from the tax increase over a decade (or $135 billion per year), they calculated that the wage loss for workers could range from $34 billion to $81 billion annually. Dividing this by the 136 million workers in the U.S. (according to 2022 Census data), the average wage reduction per worker would range from $249 to $597 each year.
The impact on wages can be calculated for each state based on its share of the total payroll. In states like California, Massachusetts, New York, Washington, and the District of Columbia, workers could see annual wage losses exceeding $700 at the higher end of the estimates. Even in low-income states such as Mississippi, West Virginia, New Mexico, Montana, and South Carolina, workers could face wage reductions nearing $200 annually at the lower end of the range.
These estimates assume no change in employment, but in reality, both wages and employment would likely suffer under a corporate tax hike. Based on our modeling of Harris’s proposed corporate tax rate increase, the U.S. could see a reduction of 125,000 full-time equivalent jobs, a 0.5% reduction in wages, and a 0.6% decline in GDP over the long term. Additionally, the broader effects of Harris’s tax plan could result in the loss of 786,000 jobs, a 1.2% drop in wages, and a 2% decrease in GDP. The most significant damage would come from the corporate tax rate increase.
Raising the corporate tax rate by 33% would be a costly mistake, disproportionately harming workers through lower wages and fewer jobs. As the Harris campaign looks for ways to fund its initiatives, alternative solutions that are less damaging to workers should be considered.
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